New Rules?

[Bee Farmer]

I wonder when western companies will join the dots and decide to upsticks to Africa for cheaper labour and  not be at the mercy of the CCP.

Are you forgetting African geography?

Africa doesn't have any meaningful amount of harbors or port capacity. 
Africa doesn't have navigable rivers.
Africa is basically 5 stacked plateaus.  There is very limited road infrastructure to go from one plateau to another.

So if you build industrial manufacturing centers to take advantage to African labor, how do you transport the products to export markets?  Transport by water is around 1/12 the cost of transporting by railroad, and I think 1/20th the cost of transport by road, assuming you have good roads.  Africa doesn't have good roads, railroads, or waterways.

[Bee Farmer]

Exactly! We have currently so much less trade with the US, that could be so much more! You are catching in well now Steven

Imagine that trade with the US doubling or more, that would boost our economy massively, raise our GDP up massively. That can all be achieved with a good trade deal with the US. It's been a much overlooked massive market just right across the pond from us. Sure not as near as the EU but near enough and importantly a big English speaking market, we get them (mostly) and they get us. It's way easier to strike up trade arrangements when you speak the same lingo (near enough) and have similar enough culture and ways. Businesses can do business with each other easier and can link up easier. Massive new opportunities for UK and US businesses could be created. The US has vast amounts of money investment with which to invest in the UK under a trade deal that would be a massive boost for are economy. They're is just one old man in the the way

What is the UK going to trade with the US?  What do you have that the US wants or needs?

Are you thinking that the US should just buy stuff from the UK to be nice to them, even though we don't want or need the stuff the UK wants to sell us?  Trade deals don't work that way.

[Bee Farmer]

Germany is at the top in Europe for GDP by quite some way, the UK is ahead if France in GDP. Italy has too much debt and potentially is in dire straights from it.

France doesn't have anything going for it that would raise their GDP more, their economy is going nowhere. Germany's economy is faltering under the weight of propping up the EU and it's poorer members and troubled by losing its cheap oil from Russia. It's still the biggest economic force currently in Europe and is usually very resilient but the UK has the opportunity to do better if it can strike up a good trade deal with the US.

Look at how the UK trumped France with AUKUS, we made fools out of them. We pinched their submarine deal with Australia so thereby boosting our economy my millions of pounds plus jobs and taking away fron theirs. More than that in the future Australia is likely to be coming to us & the US for it's armaments rather than France. France have been cut out and Macron was left fillings up his panties over it

It's a cumulative arrangement the more we three countries do together under AUKUS the more the economic effect grows cumulatively.

You are pent up on the idea of a big Navy Beefarmer, but the days of having a big Navy as a useful entity went many years ago. Now it would just be a big pointless economic burden. Though that does depend on part on the country and the use it may have for a big navy or not so. Many decades ago Britain had the biggest navy in the world, it is what we specialised in. But now with Empire gone we just don't need the economic burden of a big navy. The US is a bit different as it has bithe the Atlantic and the Pacific on either side of it, so a big navy is much more useful to it.

The main thing is that a Superpower needs to be underpinned with a big economy. The UK economy gets big again as it used to be when it had its Empire and so we can thereby gain a lot more clout and if necessary grow a big military of the back of it.

Germany WAS at the top in Europe.  They are aging into mass retirement, with no younger generation.  Add to that, the Nordstream going offline just killed the German economy.

France has relatively good demographics for a developed nation.  They are not reliant on global trade, so they are insulated from breakdowns in global trade.  They are a food producer, and meet energy needs fairly easily.
France doesn't have to increase GDP to rise to the top if everyone else's GDP crashes.

The ONLY reason the usefulness of a big navy went away years ago was because after WWII, the US ensured freedom of the seas for all countries.  We were the world's policeman.  But now, we really don't care about what goes on in other parts of the world as much.  Just look at the Houthis and Bab al-Mandeb.  The US escorts the ships we care about through the strait...and the ships of other countries can take their chances or go around Africa.  We don't keep aircraft carriers on permanent deployment in the Persian Gulf anymore.  We don't need to protect oil flow from the Middle East, because we produce more oil than we use.  It's not our problem if the Saudis or Iran closes Hormuz, because we don't need that oil - but the rest of the world does need it.

Watch this video when you get time.  You might learn something.

[ML]

Quote from: ML on Yesterday at 04:33:35 PM

    I disagree.  China is already an economic power and they will surpass the USA at some point.  The fact of Yuan being their national currency has no bearing on their economic power.

- - - - -  -

Bee Farmer
How can China surpass the US?  They don't have very many people under age 40.  They already peaked and now are in a demographic collapse. 

- - - - - -

China Population 2022

Age 20-24   73,629,000
25-29          85,040,000
30-34         116,655,000
35-39         109,832,000
Total           385,156,000

Sure China's population in current decline, but . . .

Above are nearly 400 million prime age workers ready to kick the butts of a measly
335,893,238, Americans . . . of all ages!!   Not even counting the 0 - 19 ages that are coming online soon.

China will rule the world economically and probably militarily at some point in the not too distant future. 20 to 30 years, and not more than 50.

Sure I believe in the USA, but I am just being realistic.

I am advising all the young folks I know to . . . learn the Chinese language.

[Trenchcoat]

It takes Yuan to know Yuan

[Trenchcoat]

Germany WAS at the top in Europe.  They are aging into mass retirement, with no younger generation.  Add to that, the Nordstream going offline just killed the German economy.

France has relatively good demographics for a developed nation.  They are not reliant on global trade, so they are insulated from breakdowns in global trade.  They are a food producer, and meet energy needs fairly easily.
France doesn't have to increase GDP to rise to the top if everyone else's GDP crashes.

The ONLY reason the usefulness of a big navy went away years ago was because after WWII, the US ensured freedom of the seas for all countries.  We were the world's policeman.  But now, we really don't care about what goes on in other parts of the world as much.  Just look at the Houthis and Bab al-Mandeb.  The US escorts the ships we care about through the strait...and the ships of other countries can take their chances or go around Africa.  We don't keep aircraft carriers on permanent deployment in the Persian Gulf anymore.  We don't need to protect oil flow from the Middle East, because we produce more oil than we use.  It's not our problem if the Saudis or Iran closes Hormuz, because we don't need that oil - but the rest of the world does need it.

Watch this video when you get time.  You might learn something.

According to GDP table figures France has a long way to go to overtake the UK on GDP then Germany:

Country                            GDP (IMF '23)   GDP (UN '21)
Germany                            $4.43 Tn   $4.26 Tn
United Kingdom.                  $3.33 Tn           $3.13 Tn
France                                    $3.05 Tn   $2.96 Tn
Italy                                            $2.19 Tn   $2.11 Tn

As can be seen we are not doing bad position post Brexit on GDP, currently in a good second position to Germany with GDP growing quite healthy. Considering there were all those prophets of doom naysaying if we dare ever had the audacity to leave the EU where our country would quickly be.

Zeihan draws upon some good sources but can get really be sure his analysis and evaluation is correct???

I think he is missing out on a lot of considerations in his analysis and evaluation on population, namely:

1). Population is declining throughout most of the world (aside from possibly India, etc) so as population declined so will consumption.

2). Leading on from that the population decline happening in Russia & Ukraine (from falling birth rate not war) is happening in the rest of Europe also. So European countries won't have a need or a numeracy in soldiers to invade Russia and vice versa in the near future. Other methods may be possible but it's not a compelling arguement that he makes that Russia needs to secure a certain border.

3). Robotics and digital automation. So many jobs are supposed to be taken over by Robots and digital automation going forward. So will we really need all that many people? Remember people consume and consumption costs in terms of using up resources. So this may skew the notion that a falling birthrate may condemn a country's standing in the world.


There are doubtless other considerations. It has been noted that at present we are outstripping the world's resources with people on the planet so in theory we need the global population to decrease.

[Trenchcoat]

The big thing that most people just don't get is they are all small pawns under the control of the government/the establishment of their country. Many people are just too thick to get get that or become self aware enough to see it!

In the West many people have bought into the idea of equal pay at work, everyone going for careers as the top goal, etc. All of these are set by the government and if in the EU many set by the EU. They pull the strings that push society in that direction. People in society did not all sit up one day and think the same, the government had to pull the strings to make them think that way and what's more make them think it is the values of society not the government. So the government tell the Schools how it is going forward - they tell them they want more students aiming for University, tell them to stress Education as a vitue, they tell the exam boards to make the exams less tricky to pass with more straight forward questions and less difficult ones, they give greater funding to uni's to build big buildings to accommodate students. The media take an interest as all of a sudden it has become topical and that all snowballs it on.

The government of many a country could boost their population overnight if they wanted too, they just pull different strings, but they know it's not advantageous for them to do so. The population is high in most countries and it's not going to go away overnight so a lot of this hysteria is just not in touch with reality. Imagine if a country's government tried to pull the strings and nothing happened!!!! That is a scary thought for them, if they wanted a drop in population and seemingly everyone to go to Uni and there was not uptake just girls wanting to push out kids and guys wanting to get with them to do so. That's how it used to be and what was seen as virtuous, girls on newsreels demonstrating their ironing skills to the camera instead of being sat at the exam desk paper & pen in hand.

So if a country's government wanted to boost population thinking it would propel them to being a top power they could easily do so. They would state exams are far too easy they would make them notoriously hard like they used to. They would cut out most coursework to avoid cheating. That would cut loads out of university. What would a girl do if education was a no go to her hmnnn.... My guess is that having children would come back on the cards. All the government has to do is then offer inducements, some extra financial support that it was otherwise going to spend on higher education finance, offer some encouragement, etc and we have a rising birthrate again.

However the UK government knows that despite a lot of houses being built in the UK over the years we are essentially out of housing. So does it want the headache of a rising birthrate that would cause it further problems? No not really so better keep the message the same, focus on education, raise the retirement age by a few years to adjust for an aging population.

In Ukraine they just don't pay enough for a pension to live off so the elderly there just carry on working either full time or part time. The birth rate there has fallen off but hasn't completely crashed so it's the same deal in a slightly different way, the government knows that they only have so much housing, they know how much labour force is needed so they socially engineer society the best they can to fit the trend they need. The war may alter that if it goes on for long enough and they will adjust as needed. All of a sudden the virtue to be welcoming to Turks may be emphasized, to not be racist, etc or face punishment. Or perhaps instead a shift to the virtue if having children extolled. It's all what the government want and the population is mostly just too stupid to realise they are being played and think it's their own values lol.

[Bee Farmer]

Quote from: ML on Yesterday at 04:33:35 PM

    I disagree.  China is already an economic power and they will surpass the USA at some point.  The fact of Yuan being their national currency has no bearing on their economic power.

- - - - -  -

Bee Farmer
How can China surpass the US?  They don't have very many people under age 40.  They already peaked and now are in a demographic collapse. 

- - - - - -

China Population 2022

Age 20-24   73,629,000
25-29          85,040,000
30-34         116,655,000
35-39         109,832,000
Total           385,156,000

Sure China's population in current decline, but . . .

Above are nearly 400 million prime age workers ready to kick the butts of a measly
335,893,238, Americans . . . of all ages!!   Not even counting the 0 - 19 ages that are coming online soon.

China will rule the world economically and probably militarily at some point in the not too distant future. 20 to 30 years, and not more than 50.

Sure I believe in the USA, but I am just being realistic.

I am advising all the young folks I know to . . . learn the Chinese language.

In China, the regional governors receive funding based upon the number of babies born in their region.  Surprise, surprise, the Chinese are now coming out and saying they overcounted the number of folks 40 and under by in excess of 100 million people.  They still aren't exactly sure how bad the numbers got padded.  In many parts, the birth rate is 0.7 per woman, when the replacement rate is 2 kids per mother.

On top of that, all those folks you think are going to be the economic powerhouse will be supporting a billion retired people.  Normally you want a minimum of 2 or 3 workers to support each retired person.  China is going to have 3 retired people to every worker.

At the current rate of military expansion, it will take China over 200 years to get their military to match the US.  Right now, most of their boats are littoral boats that are good for coastlines and rivers.  They have a very limited number that can go more than a few hundred miles from port.  They simply don't have the capacity to project power very far.

The vast majority of their food or food inputs is imported.  Any disruption and half the population starves within a year.
Almost all their energy is imported.  They don't have the naval capacity to protect the supply lines from the Middle East.  Any disruption to oil, and they de-industrialize within 6 months.

The first 5 years Xi was in office, he killed or imprisoned all his political rivals.  The next 5 years, he got rid of anyone with a brain, so they couldn't challenge him.  China is now a cult of personality ran by one man, and everyone is afraid to give him information because he has killed the messenger too many times.

China is a paper tiger.  It's a house of cards, and any wrong breeze will bring everything crashing down.

India now has a higher population than China.

[Bee Farmer]

It takes Yuan to know Yuan

Don't you mean Juan?

Especially considering that since 2000, the price of labor in China has went up 16 times.  Chinese labor is now 3 times as expensive as Mexican labor, and Mexican labor is 2.5 times more skilled than the Chinese workers.

Mexico is a bigger trading partner with the US than China is.

Zeihan draws upon some good sources but can get really be sure his analysis and evaluation is correct???

Go back and check out his old predictions.  He predicted back in 2014 that Russia would invade Ukraine, and said that 2022 was the last year they would have a military big enough to do it because of the demographic problems Russia is facing.

According to GDP table figures France has a long way to go to overtake the UK on GDP then Germany:

Country                            GDP (IMF '23)   GDP (UN '21)
Germany                            $4.43 Tn   $4.26 Tn
United Kingdom.                  $3.33 Tn           $3.13 Tn
France                                    $3.05 Tn   $2.96 Tn
Italy                                            $2.19 Tn   $2.11 Tn

As can be seen we are not doing bad position post Brexit on GDP, currently in a good second position to Germany with GDP growing quite healthy.

Even Germany now admits they are screwed.

1). Population is declining throughout most of the world (aside from possibly India, etc) so as population declined so will consumption.

But until all those old people die, they still need to eat, and have medical care, and people to support them.  How are they going to accomplish that with a smaller workforce, especially if there is a breakdown in globalization?

2). Leading on from that the population decline happening in Russia & Ukraine (from falling birth rate not war) is happening in the rest of Europe also. So European countries won't have a need or a numeracy in soldiers to invade Russia and vice versa in the near future. Other methods may be possible but it's not a compelling arguement that he makes that Russia needs to secure a certain border.

Oh, but what about all the undeveloped Muslim countries on Russia's southern border that have lots of children?  You think Georgia, Azerbaijan/Armenia, or the stans won't make a move?  Turkey is in a decent position, and will become a much bigger regional power in the next few years.  You don't think a weak Russia has anything to worry about from Turkey?  Are you not familiar with history?

3). Robotics and digital automation. So many jobs are supposed to be taken over by Robots and digital automation going forward. So will we really need all that many people? Remember people consume and consumption costs in terms of using up resources. So this may skew the notion that a falling birthrate may condemn a country's standing in the world.

But who are you going to sell the products your robots make?  Japan has been at the front of robotics and automation...and they just move their factories to other countries that have more workers.

There are doubtless other considerations. It has been noted that at present we are outstripping the world's resources with people on the planet so in theory we need the global population to decrease.

Yeah, but then we had advancements in things like agriculture that boosted food production and folks realized the carrying capacity of the planet was much higher than they originally projected.

In the West many people have bought into the idea of equal pay at work, everyone going for careers as the top goal, etc. All of these are set by the government and if in the EU many set by the EU.

Then why do you see so many people starting their own business, so there is no limit to what they can make?

In Ukraine they just don't pay enough for a pension to live off so the elderly there just carry on working either full time or part time. The birth rate there has fallen off but hasn't completely crashed

What kind of drugs are you smoking?  The Ukraine birth rate crashed after the Soviet Union fell apart.  Now 10% of the population has fled, primarily women and children.  How many men have died or been crippled in the war?

Even if they "win" Ukraine is probably screwed forever.  It will take decades to rebuild all the infrastructure and rebuild the economy.  People won't want to have kids until the economy recovers, and by the time things get straightened out, they will be too old to have kids.

[Trenchcoat]

Don't you mean Juan?

Especially considering that since 2000, the price of labor in China has went up 16 times.  Chinese labor is now 3 times as expensive as Mexican labor, and Mexican labor is 2.5 times more skilled than the Chinese workers.

Mexico is a bigger trading partner with the US than China is.

Go back and check out his old predictions.  He predicted back in 2014 that Russia would invade Ukraine, and said that 2022 was the last year they would have a military big enough to do it because of the demographic problems Russia is facing.

Even Germany now admits they are screwed.


But until all those old people die, they still need to eat, and have medical care, and people to support them.  How are they going to accomplish that with a smaller workforce, especially if there is a breakdown in globalization?

Oh, but what about all the undeveloped Muslim countries on Russia's southern border that have lots of children?  You think Georgia, Azerbaijan/Armenia, or the stans won't make a move?  Turkey is in a decent position, and will become a much bigger regional power in the next few years.  You don't think a weak Russia has anything to worry about from Turkey?  Are you not familiar with history?

But who are you going to sell the products your robots make?  Japan has been at the front of robotics and automation...and they just move their factories to other countries that have more workers.

Yeah, but then we had advancements in things like agriculture that boosted food production and folks realized the carrying capacity of the planet was much higher than they originally projected.

Then why do you see so many people starting their own business, so there is no limit to what they can make?

What kind of drugs are you smoking?  The Ukraine birth rate crashed after the Soviet Union fell apart.  Now 10% of the population has fled, primarily women and children.  How many men have died or been crippled in the war?

Even if they "win" Ukraine is probably screwed forever.  It will take decades to rebuild all the infrastructure and rebuild the economy.  People won't want to have kids until the economy recovers, and by the time things get straightened out, they will be too old to have kids.

Many people predicted Russia would invade Ukraine after they had gone into Crimea. Largely because if someone acts in a land grabbing way they usually go for more later. Zeihan is not alone and no genius for predicting that.

Most countries around the world know that they are going to have to endure the a large old age blip. Too much gets made of that, sure it's a strain while it goes on but you're talking about 10-20 years then it's largely over. That time tends to go fairly fast and is not huge in the great context of things. It's not going to send countries downhill in a permanent inescapable slide into catastrophe.

What happens is that after the baby boom generation pass in we then have more housing, easier job opportunities. Suddenly again it becomes easier to buy a house, get a job and yes have children. And so birth rates pick up maybe even in a second baby boom or mini boom.

However, my personal view is that government's are now trying to aim for a leveling out of the birth rate. They aren't keen on blips in births. They know that we are over consuming the world's resources and they aren't seeing a beef for as many people moving forward. So they help promote feminism, education & careers as they know that is a sure fire way to reduce the birth rate. If people end up alone and miserable it can't be helped just something that happens along with that.

Ukraine will continue after the war. Sure some may not return and they will have a loss of men and population. Again though stuff will happen to fill the void, birth rates may increase as there may be excess accomodation, migrants may be allowed in or perhaps Ukraine will be happy enough with the situation I'd housing & population loss has occurred in equal measure.

Ukraine and other countries have had far fewer people going back hundreds of years, they don't need loads of people to function, no country does. If places are sparse and become unpopulated it doesn't condemn the country as a whole. Same if there are excess unused buildings in a city ending up falling apart.

Main thing is to not get too carried away with such population scrutiny. Look further out at the much bigger long term picture. It's not a bad thing for the planet as a whole that birth rates have fallen away. I think the figure is that we are already out consuming the planet's resources by 1.7 times. Whether that figure is correct and true who knows but I don't think we can keep reproducing fast like we used to as in people hit their twenties, early twenties even and push out as soon as, and nearly the whole generation does that. We would be screwed in about 50 years if not sooner of doing that with widespread poverty, starvations, mayhem with people crawling over each other.

That I think is what government's are trying to avoid. I would rather they be upfront with people and say 'ok we can't have everyone reproducing, so unless you have a dying urge can many if you busy yourself in some kind of interest/work instead'. Rather than a load of carry on off pulling the strings and levers from behind the scenes and punting forward feminist values. At least then people would know why they are single and why society is the way it is instead of wondering and thinking it's down to them.

My view of COVID was that it was deliberately introduced to deal with the old age blip and keep the population figures down. I think governments throughout the world see the global population as too high in terms of out consuming resources and know they have to get it down pretty fast. With improved medical care many people, particularly the elderly were just living too long.

But again another thing they can't come out and say moreso than the previous but that's how governments are.

[Steven1971]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/26/uk-suspends-trade-talks-canada-no-progress-details-agriculture-markets?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Another of the Brexiters' "Easiest trade deal in history" abandoned.

[Steven1971]

http://www.itv.com/news/2024-01-25/fruit-and-veg-prices-predicted-to-rise-in-uk-when-new-post-brexit-controls-bite

This additional post Brexit paperwork, which will add $250 million to the costs of UK supermarkets, has already had it's implementation delayed five times. It was due to finally be enforced in April, but a subtle change means the full force won't be until in October. Which to me says the next UK general election will be before October 2024.

[Trenchcoat]

Can't expect all to run smoothly and all to be in our favour post Brexit Steven. A few things I think we can gain big on particularly long term, other things we may not be so. I would wait until the Summer as the Government have time to act on these and see how they fair.

My impression of the Canada free trade deal was that Canada were likely trying to force the issue to have it all their own way, as the article says, play hard ball and see if they can score big against us by us agreeing. In that respect I agree with the government to cease talks as otherwise I'd you give in to that every other nation around the world would try the same. There are other people we can talk to.

Canada seemed to want to flood our markets on mass with chlorinated chicken, hormone beef and probably GM crops that they do. We rightly said no, we lose out on a few car sales and sales of cheese and that's about it. Sometimes there is just not a deal to be done.

The General Election here is pretty certain to be at the end of the year, November at the earliest as the Government will want to get through all of their legislation before the end of the year at which point it is normally the (Queens) Kings Speech setting out the agenda for the year ahead. That and the Government are doing so badly in the polls there is no benefit for them to go earlier with a General Election than they have too. I can't see the Government winning or doing at all well in the General Election even if the economy improves, inflation comes down some more etc. If Sunak resigned or got kicked out by his party it may help but I can't see that happening either. It looks like one of those cling to the Captain as he goes down with the ship moments for fear of there being anyone better.

[Steven1971]

This is going to happen with every significant economy. Want a trade deal with India? We want visa free travel, spousal visas as well as visas for workers. New Zealand we know already as they are literally pinching themselves in disbelief that we screwed over our own farmers to get a deal... America, China, Japan... They all know the UK is weak and a tiny bit desperate.

The next act of the Brexit tragedy will be Reform UK (REFUK) attempting a reverse take over of the Conservative party post election drubbing.

[Trenchcoat]

This is going to happen with every significant economy. Want a trade deal with India? We want visa free travel, spousal visas as well as visas for workers. New Zealand we know already as they are literally pinching themselves in disbelief that we screwed over our own farmers to get a deal... America, China, Japan... They all know the UK is weak and a tiny bit desperate.

The next act of the Brexit tragedy will be Reform UK (REFUK) attempting a reverse take over of the Conservative party post election drubbing.

Many of those countries we have scored trade deals with post Brexit already around the Pacific. I wouldn't say the deals struck were one sided in favour of either side. Any visa relaxation out that way I don't think will have a lot of affect in us due to those countries being a long distance away.

Britain has foremost trade negotiation skills we helped the EU strike a trade deal with Japan when we were a member that they were failing to accomplish themselves. However, some countries are just not always well aligned for a trade deal and may also have poor negotiation skills on their side like Canada trying to play hard ball and thinking it will work. One important skill in negotiation is to be prepared to walk away if a deal does not seem good. Chances are those you walked away from will see the errors of their ways and come back to you with more reasonable terms.

We don't need to rush any trade deals as our economy is motoring along just fine. A US trade deal would really turbo charge it but only on the right terms. I think there is still a good chance with the right trade deals with the US and Canada in the near future.