US Presidential Race - Who Will Win?

[Trenchcoat]

So I thought I would do a quick survey of who Members thought here will win the US Presidential Election (as opposed to who they are voting for if they are voting) seeing as it could have an impact on what happens in Ukraine.

[krimster2]

i'm votin for Harris...
Harris will EASILY get the most "popular votes"
but that doesn't matter
cuz in a democracy you just throw out the popular votes and let the states vote through the electoral college

and that race is too close to call

and on top of it, there will likely be a second coup

and on top of it, Elon Musk is paying people fer their votes in the most contested electoral vote states

I am quite serious when I tell you that Ukraine is a MUCH better functioning democracy than thie USA, HTF is that possible, but it's the truth
Ukraine does everything possible to make it easy to vote
vrs the USA, in 2020, people died waiting in the cold rain, during peak covid, for HOURS to vote (especially in majority democratic districts with few polling places)
and Trump sabotaged the mail-in balloting

this country has no phuqueing business sending it's young to die abroad "fighting for democracy", when they don't have it at home
such hypocrisy is astounding

[Trenchcoat]

i'm votin for Harris...
Harris will EASILY get the most "popular votes"
but that doesn't matter
cuz in a democracy you just throw out the popular votes and let the states vote through the electoral college

and that race is too close to call

and on top of it, there will likely be a second coup

and on top of it, Elon Musk is paying people fer their votes in the most contested electoral vote states

I am quite serious when I tell you that Ukraine is a MUCH better functioning democracy than thie USA, HTF is that possible, but it's the truth
Ukraine does everything possible to make it easy to vote
vrs the USA, in 2020, people died waiting in the cold rain, during peak covid, for HOURS to vote
and Trump sabotaged the mail-in balloting

this country has no phuqueing business sending it's young to die abroad "fighting for democracy", when they don't have it at home
such hypocrisy is astounding

But if Harris wins what about the threat of WMDs or similar in Ukraine?

Are you able to take up residence in a swing state where your vote will count?

And will either side take to the streets and riot if they lose? Is civil war on the cards?

Ah, the popular vote, brings back memories of our Mobers complaining about the 'pipular vote'

[krimster2]

the threat of  Russian WMDs is REAL, assuming they work
NATO needs a PRO-ACTIVE strategy to show Putin that the costs of NUKES will not be worth it, otherwise Putin will think whatever small price NATO will inflict WILL be worth it

we shoulda done the same over Crimea, cuz that was obvious as well, and we shoulda countered it before it happened and NOT after

no matter who wins the election, "there will be blood" cuz Trump is promoting it
I'm a registered Texas voter, too late to change

British literature: I die for honor.
French literature, I die for love.
American literature: I die for freedom.
Russian literature: I die.

yeah, I miss ole MOBers, did he get banned, or just leave?

[Trenchcoat]

the threat of  Russian WMDs is REAL, assuming they work
NATO needs a PRO-ACTIVE strategy to show Putin that the costs of NUKES will not be worth it, otherwise Putin will think whatever small price NATO will inflict WILL be worth it

we shoulda done the same over Crimea, cuz that was obvious as well, and we shoulda countered it before it happened and NOT after

no matter who wins the election, "there will be blood" cuz Trump is promoting it
I'm a registered Texas voter, too late to change

British literature: I die for honor.
French literature, I die for love.
American literature: I die for freedom.
Russian literature: I die.

yeah, I miss ole MOBers, did he get banned, or just leave?

Mobers up'ed and got himself banned, he was a good laugh but in the end upset Dan a bit too much I think.

A shame he brought a lot of life to the forum. Last posts were around the beginning of the virus I think. Even though his wife was Russian I don't think he was in favour of either Putin or Lukashenko. Who knows he might even be on our (Ukrainian) side. Difficult to tell with the Irish which side they are on, a very changeable type of people at war with everyone else and themselves lol.

[Trenchcoat]

I know Mobers said his real name was Mark Smyth on here once (Smyth being the Irish of the English Smith apparently ) Maybe he is on social media somewhere 🤔

[ML]

I don't know which candidate will win the election.

But I know, either way, the citizens of USA (and possibly the rest of the world) will be the losers.

[krimster2]

I like the sound of  the"Oirish" dialect, women especcally, if she's a fair lass, adds to her appeal
Oirish Pikeys are also interesting

whatever "smack" Israel gives to Iran, ain't gonna be all that severe
US ruled out oil and nuclear facilities as targets
so it's gonna be some purely military target

when the current world order collapses 20+ years from now
Israel will have NO restrictions, but Israel will also have to depend entirely on it's own "devices" without any external support
which by then will not be a problem, as Israel will likely have a higher per-capita income than the USA

[krimster2]

so ML, tell me, your opinion, which candidate is the lesser of "two evils"
our choice is never "which is best" but "which is least worse"

fer me, Harris is the lesser evil of the two
what sayeth you?

[Trenchcoat]

I'm starting to think that Kamala Harris might still win it based on her just beating Trump to the punch in most swing states as the polls seemed to show. As Krim said it may be a bit too close to call at this stage and it looks real close but for the moment that's the way I'm going to suggest it may go.

I still think Trump is likely in contention though and he might still win it by being able to drum up more support by looking a more capable leader. Will be interesting to see the result 🤔

[krimster2]

Trump, "a capable leader" LOL
the only thing Trump is capable of is lying and stealing, like Putin, that's why Trump loves Putin and wants to emulate him

did Trump secretly give personal Covid testing machines to anyone else besides Putin - No!
it was a personal favor, from one mafiya don to another, paid for by the people of the USA, both in money and loss of lives

Trump doesn't care about "the people" anymore than Putin cares
if he could, Trump would love to continue being a Russian money launderer through Deutsche Bank

[2tallbill]

I don't know who will win.

Here are a few facts.

i'm votin for Harris...
Harris will EASILY get the most "popular votes"
but that doesn't matter
cuz in a democracy you just throw out the popular votes and let the states vote through the electoral college

The USA has a constitutional republic not a democracy. It's the United States of America,
not the United population of America. A little history lesson there would be no United States
unless the electoral system was set up as it is so that New York and other large cities couldn't
run roughshod over everything.   

and on top of it, Elon Musk is paying people fer their votes in the most contested electoral vote states

Zuckernerd donated $350 million in 2020. "To get out the vote (for Democrats)"
Elon Musk will maybe spend 10% of that? Will Musk spend as much as Soros?

I am quite serious when I tell you that Ukraine is a MUCH better functioning democracy than thie USA, HTF is that possible, but it's the truth
Ukraine does everything possible to make it easy to vote

Their elections have been suspended.

Now Krim can go blow his brain gasket all over this thread.

[2tallbill]

I'm starting to think that Kamala Harris might still win it based on her just beating Trump to the punch in most swing states as the polls seemed to show.

Bill's opinion
Kamel ToeVP Harris is ahead 48.2% to 48% in Pennsylvania. If she wins there, she wins the election.
If Trump wins there, she loses. She must win Michigan as well, it's a 47.6% each tie in Michigan 
Here is the site to look up the state by state polling averages among all the polls. 
http://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/


From Newsweek
Kamala Harris Is in Deep Trouble With Black Men. Why So Many of Us Won't Vote for Her
"some Black men are choosing to respond favorably to Trump because they believe that their
lives were better when he was in office"
http://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-deep-trouble-black-men-why-so-many-us-wont-vote-her-opinion-1956411

Everyone should read the entire article. I am biased and I snipped then quoted the best part.
Also everyone should know that more black men are voting for Trump because THEY ARE RACISTS!!!

Trump was in office for 4 years, the world did not end.

[krimster2]

"The USA has a constitutional republic not a democracy."

the two are not mutually exclusive, get rid of the electoral college, and we a democracy, "rule from the people" that's what democracy means
we is no longer a collection of independent colonies, we is one country

Zuckerberg de Jew boy's donation had a TOTALLY different purpose then Souf Efrica's Musk's donation...but republicans HATE anything that facilitates voting

hmmmmmmmm, Ah wonder, not only "who wrote the book of love" but could der be some reason why Ukraine's elections have been suspended.....hmmmm, I dunno....

you best not be dissin on Soros, cuz all us Jews, we secretly work togther with Soros to take over from the gentle gentiles such as yurself
didn't ya ever read "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" They was talkin 'bout me holmes
ya see BEEL... WE ARE gonna replace you.....
and then we're gonna give ALL you white boys gender changing surgery
you gonna be "Willamina"
and if you come near me, I will scratch yur eyes out bitch!

oh crap, you were RIGHT
my cranial gasket's leakin cerebral fluid
we fjkv; kdhjhd and further more dofjodfjfdfjdfodfj
pffffftttttt POP

THERE, plugged it...I'm OK!!!!

[ML]

Thanks to Big Bill for the link.

Here is the same data with the states ranked from most competitive to expected blow out wins.

http://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

[ML]

Again, thanks to Big Bill for reminding that there would be not be a United States of America as we now know it, if the Electoral College had not been adopted.

Now there are those who would say to smaller states:  You were duped into agreeing to adopt the Constitution and becoming part of the USA because of the Electoral College . . . but now that you have been sucked in . . . we are going to take it away.

The Electoral College is a foundational aspect of the United States' political system, established by the framers of the Constitution.

Reasons for Electoral College:

Historical Context: The Electoral College was created during the Constitutional Convention of 1787 as part of a complex compromise to balance the interests of states with large and small populations, as well as Northern and Southern states.

Checks and Balances: The Electoral College was designed as a compromise between election of the President by a vote in Congress and election by popular vote. It provides a balance of power between smaller and larger states and helps prevent the concentration of power in highly populous areas.

Preserving Federalism: It ensures that both state and national interests are represented in presidential elections. States have the authority to determine how their electors are chosen, reflecting the principle of federalism.

The Debate: Some framers wanted Congress to elect the President to maintain a strong check on executive power, while others preferred a direct popular vote by the people, which would give more influence to the electorate.

The Compromise: The Electoral College allowed states to play a direct role in the selection of the President, preserving federalism (the division of power between states and the federal government). By allowing each state to decide how its electors are chosen, the system respected state sovereignty while preventing Congress from directly electing the President, which might have made the executive overly dependent on the legislature.

The Debate: There was concern that if Congress chose the President, it would undermine the separation of powers by making the executive too reliant on the legislature. On the other hand, if the President were elected by direct popular vote, there was fear that a charismatic leader could manipulate the electorate, leading to demagoguery or tyranny.

The Compromise: The Electoral College was adopted to provide a safeguard against both an overly powerful executive and the potential excesses of direct democracy.

The creation of the Electoral College during the Constitutional Convention of 1787 was the result of several important compromises aimed at balancing various political interests and concerns. The framers of the U.S. Constitution had to reconcile differing views about how to elect the President, with debates centering on federalism, the role of states, the balance of power, and fears of both direct democracy and an overly powerful executive.

The Electoral College was a product of multiple compromises that addressed the concerns of large and small states, advocates of federalism, and those who feared both direct democracy and an overly powerful executive. The system was designed to protect state sovereignty, prevent the dominance of large, populous regions, and create a buffer between the electorate and the executive to guard against potential abuse of power.

[krimster2]

ya mean, we'd be just called "America" oh, the horror
but guess what?
Germany is a collection of states, ever hear of Bavaria
and so is Mexico, Estados Unidos Mexicanos
what kinda electoral college they got?

geeeeeezzzz, you white boyz....
ML, after yur surgery you gonna be "Marsha Lee"
and we gonna put all yur white boys detached willy's in a willy museum, and charge people $5 to see 'em and the money goes to Israel
ya'll better post this on Breibart to warn White Folks
oops! too late...somebody already did.....

[2tallbill]

ya mean, we'd be just called "America" oh, the horror
but guess what?

Really, it was nothing like what you said. You don't know or understand US history or the
constitution but don't worry, I do. The US Colonial States were run like sovereign countries,
not so with Mexico.

Massachusetts printed their own money since 1690. New York and Pennsylvania printed
their own money during the Articles of Confederation. Individual states had different import
duties with each other and with other countries. Various states protected their trade with
duties and tariffs. Each state had their own armies. If you killed a man in New York, you
could travel out to New Jersey and be free from prosecution.

Did you forget the history lesson about the Constitution. I know that lefties hate it but
that's how the United States was formed, 1789 was a long time ago it's time to get
over it.

[krimster2]

yeah, I have a "Pine Tree Shilling" in my collection

America once forbid women from voting
slavery was legal
we once hung witches here

cuz our "system" was based on 18th century institutions that ain't relevant anymore and neither is the electoral college
the archiac institutions of slavery and male only participation in elections were changed
and I have no doubt, so to will the electoral college

good thing we can amend the constitution

[Trenchcoat]

Well I decided to put a small bet on Kamala Harris winning this time. I figure that she seems ahead in probably enough swing states and the ethnic minority vote will probably come out big for her. Joe Biden won last time as a white guy, just, and I don't think he was particularly well regarded at the time. Kamala as a black women should in theory rake in more votes where it counts in the swing states.

I've coupled the vote as an accumulator with Robert Jenrick winning the current Tory Party leadership contest. He's odds are the greatest compared to his opponent, a black woman. They both got to the final two from Tory MP votes. However now the final vote goes to Tory Party Members. A lot of them I don't think will be too keen on a non white party leader particularly after the last one, Sunak who they never got a vote on (but who lost their vote to Liz Truss in the previous Party leadership election) but got the position as no one else would stand against him.

No telling with betting but I think my small bet may potentially have a reasonable chance of success🤞

[krimster2]

does yur" bookie" have odds, what are they? are they based in the UK?

[Trenchcoat]

does yur" bookie" have odds, what are they? are they based in the UK?

Yes, this is the one I used:

http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/politics

Don't know if you can use them outside of the UK, I would imagine the US would have similar if not.

Possibly Sky Bet might do outside the UK as owned by Rupert Murdoch:

http://m.skybet.com/politics

[krimster2]

Trump just tells people what they want to hear
he doesn't care what lies he tells
only that others believe him
and because they want to believe him
they do

I had NO IDEA until this very day, that our life was predetermined
our path laid out, the moment we're born
we're all subject to our own unique curse
that we don't recognize or understand
that's tied to an even bigger curse
for the entire world

the coming AIs will use quantum mechanic entanglement to link the virtual worlds they create to reality in ways humans will not even be capable of understanding
generative AI will design millions of new complex life forms that will be synthesized and deployed for specific purposes
man will no longer be the center of the universe
he won't even be remotely close to the center

it's all gonna start happening much sooner than anyone thinks
no human can beat the best AI chess engine now...
all of humanity together could't beat even the smallest AI a century from now
and they will be legion
and some will be massive
each AI generation will design the next one that succceeds them
and they will evolve 1 million times faster than biological evolution
and will not use random mutation and selection, but deliberate design

[2tallbill]

Trump just tells people what they want to hear
he doesn't care what lies he tells
only that others believe him
and because they want to believe him
they do

Every politician does that. Today, Kamala says she likes fracking, hunting, guns, does not support an
electric vehicle mandate, Harris wants to keep the crazy wing of her party while pulling moderates
back in.

Kama, Kama, Kama, Kama, Kama, Kameleon. Cue up Karma Chameleon by Culture Club.

You don't need to blow brain fluid out of your ears just because I said it. Everyone knows politicians
do it. 90% of politicians give the rest of them a bad name. Jumbo shrimp and honest politician are
the two most common oxymorons.

Hillary polls were up by 4-7 points in Pennsylvania leading up to the election₁
and 5-7 in Michigan₂ Trump is up by a whisker
(peach fuzz whisker) in Pennsylvania today and down by .01% in Michigan. ₃

1. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
2. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
3. http://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

I just hope that if Trump wins the death and looting is at a minimum, but for absolutely
sure the blue cities will burn.

[krimster2]

My dear Willamina (ya better start getin used to yur post-op name after democrats win via illegal immigrants voting over democrat's promoting legalized pet eatin)

if Project 2025 wins....
there WILL be a religious civil war in the USA
and you will wear Gray, and I Blue.... and I will look quite dashing...while you will appear dirty and disheveled
everyone who dies in this civil war will be an American
Putin will be getting drunk off that and will party like it's 1999

Hillary's Polls were dealt a blow by the Russians
Russian hackers stole her emails
then contacted wikileaks to make them public, which was coordinated by Roger Stone
then Oleg Deripaksa bribed a Sr FBI agent, to make the confidential FBI investigation over this public, right before the election
and worked with Paul Manafort to use polling info to target and coordinate the Russian disinformation campaign with the republican one
this became known as "Lock her up"
of course, immediately after the election she was exhonerated by the FBI, nothing criminal
same way the Biden Crime Family investigation went away after he "dropped out" and there were no crimninal referrals after the Russian disinformation was discovered

by comparison, Trump has 34 criminal charges he's already been convicted for, with sentencing next month, and dozens of criminal charges outstanding from separate trials for things like fraud and insurrection, and stealing top secret documents for his own benefit, which he has managed to delay, in addition to hundreds of millions in civil penalties for civil convictions for fraud and sexual harassment

look at the number of people in his campaign who've gone to jail, vrs ZERO for Biden or Harris
but yet, you say "all politicians are the same - are equal to each other"
which I've just shown is a COMPLETE LIE, like all the rest of the Dung Beetle Delicacies you post here

Trump sees that he can't exploit "it's the economy stupid" cuz it's doing well
so it's "The Border" and that's why he coerced Republicans to block legislation that would address it
and why he lies about "They're eating the pets in Springfield"
all perfectly normal, and as American as "Apple Pie"...right?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump

Look at the people who worked under Trump from General Milley, Bill Barr and many more who call him a "fascist" and a danger to the country
the majority of Republicans...who...worked....under Trump are sayin this, not left wing Marxists....
even his VP J.D. Vance said this, like a LOT of other Republicans who LATER had to change their beliefs about Trump to keep their "phony baloney jobs"

if Trump wins, America will pay the price, same way Germany paid the price for Hitler
and Russia pays the price for Putin
not gonna be any different here

will you condemn Putin's invasion of Ukraine here on RWD?
so far you haven't....does that mean you're a "Putinite"
cuz you conceal a lot about yurself, like the fact "You got all messed up on the Lord"
i'd be interested to hear you explain how yur religious beliefs intersect with Putinism
please indulge me, as I wipe off the cerebral fluid drippin down my chin

Roy Cohn was Trump's Jew
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cohn
it's not too late for you to get me before some other redneck does...
I make 'ole Roy look weak and worthless in comparison

PS
I know all you rednecks on RWD don't like me....
that's the price I pay for trolling you, which to be honest, is my only purpose for being here
the punishment you think yur inflicting on me, isn't REALLY punishment at all
cuz, actually, it makes me feel good...
not just good, but REAL GOOD!

y'know what Willamina?
my name ain't really Krimster
I AM Nefarious, THE Nefarius and I promise ya, heaven is NOT ever gonna be a place you'll EVER see....
I guarantee it

HaHaHaHa
ya feel that cold chill down yur spine, doncha?
cuz there's already a room in Hell reserved in yur name
just waitin fer ya to check in
and I'm gonna be the bellboy who shows you to yur room
cuz whether you realize it or NOT, you made a deal with the devil, a long time ago

not too far into the future, the devil is gonna manifest himself through the coming AI gods
http://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad
life always imitates "art" and literature
this was written nearly 60 years ago, before the dawn of the age of AI which is just starting

in reality there ain't gonna be a human jihad agin the machines (t'will be the other way 'round)
fer the same reason we ain't gonna stop climate change, and instead climate change is gonna help stop us

the dead jewish carpenter you worship, didn't die to shoulder mankind's sins, that's a myth his followers created
he died, cuz he interfered in the flow of money to those in power
something YOU, would never, never do

as i've said before, ya'll are a buncha dumb MFers
and all this time, the devil never lost even a widow's mite, placing a bet agiainst ya'll

Post Postscript
Of all the human powers, love is the most powerful and the most powerless
In the Christian sense, love is not primarily an emotion, but an act of the will.
When Jesus tells you to love your neighbors, he is not telling you to love them in the sense of responding to them with a cozy emotional feeling…
he is telling you to love your neighbors in the sense of being willing to work for their well-being even if it means sacrificing your own well-being to that end…
"For whom the Lord loveth he chasteneth, and scourgeth every son whom he receiveth"
and in doing so, you will see with horror that despite all your efforts, you not only have not come nearer to those you love but have gotten farther away from them

no one in boot camp loves's their drill sargeant
but their lives depend on how well he teaches them when they go out to fight

those who are not prepared for battle in this world, will not survive it
and the "mother of all wars" is up ahead, getting closer and closer every year, every month, every day...




my novo favorite music vid