Survey Results - First Question

[Admin]

Hey Folks,

The survey has been in the hands of the expert consultants who are preparing the report. They have had the data for some time, and are now a couple of weeks away from producing the initial report. For those interested, you can read about the consultants who are reviewing the data and preparing the report at their website, found here --> www.statisticssolutions.com.

The final results will include, or enable, direct statistical results parsed from the provided data - comparative statistics that evaluate differences and similarities between the results of our survey with the results of other surveys - and extrapolations (I think Dr. Lani uses the term 'predictive correlations') which take the data and makes predictions of future events.

Anyway - as something of a 'teaser' I thought it might be fun to gather a little input from you all on what you expect the results to state on several important factors.

Starting with the first, and arguably, the most important, I wonder what you believe will be the result of this question:

A006: Are you divorced from your cross-cultural spouse?

In the context of this poll, it means; 'What percentage of people who marry a partner from a foreign country, end in divorce?'

This speaks to the question of divorce rate among those of us who marry a spouse from a different country. For reference, consider the stats from this website about US divorce -- http://www.divorcerate.org/ - with links to divorce stats in the UK and elsewhere.

This poll will run for 7 days - at which time I will post the raw results from the survey we conducted.

Enjoy!

- Dan

[Admin]

For comparison purposes, US divorce rate is reported to be "close to 50%".

It should be realized that the "close to 50%" divorce rate refers to the percentage of marriages entered into during a particular year that are projected to end in divorce or separation before one spouse dies.

That is the comparative stat we are using for purposes of this divorce rate.

- Dan

Source for the 50% statistic - US Census Bureau report, found here -- http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf.

Summary states:

Nearly half of recent first marriages may end in divorce.

[kievstar]

You probably should use marriages that are 12 plus years in age difference and start with men 40 years and older. Finding the correct data is the hard part.  Maybe your 50% is this.

[Admin]

You probably should use marriages that are 12 plus years in age difference and start with men 40 years and older. Finding the correct data is the hard part.  Maybe your 50% is this.

We have the ability to parse the data to produce that stat - but I thought, for this comparison, it was best to keep it as simple as possible.

Anyway, tomorrow I will provide the result from our survey and how it compares with this other stat.

FWIW

- Dan

[Mark Davis]

It is a difficult number to devise.  There are few facts and even fewer conclusions:

1.  According to the International Marriage Broker's Act of 2005 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h109-3657): " . . . the total number of foreign fiance(e)s entering the United States each year more than doubled between 1998 and 2002. It is currently estimated, then, that at least 8,000 to 12,000 individuals in the United States find foreign spouses through for-profit international marriage brokers each year.

2. According to US Immigration statistics: "In 1996 about 54,000 spouses were sponsored by permanent resident aliens."  I don't have stats for more recent years.  This stat came from a report entitled MAIL-ORDER BRIDE INDUSTRYAND ITS IMPACT ON U.S. IMMIGRATION by Robert J. Scholes, PhD as posted on AFA's website.

3.  "According to data supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 2,395,000 marriages in the U.S. in the 12 months ending June, 1997 (and 1,154,000 divorces in the same period). The 4,000 to 6,000 marriages involving international services represent, then, a tiny portion (.021 percent) of the women who marry U.S. men."  This comes comes from the same report by Dr. Scholes.  he goes on to say: "It is interesting to note that, based largely on data provided by the agencies themselves (along with the Commission on Filipinos Overseas report cited above), marriages arranged through these services would appear to have a lower divorce rate than the nation as a whole, fully 80 percent of these marriages having lasted over the years for which reports are available."

So what can we conclude?  Well, we have to just do some intelligent guesswork.

• Item 2 states that there were 54,000 fiance visa sponsored immigrants in the one year of 1996.
   
  Item 3 states that there were 4,000 to 6,000 divorces involving foreign brides of U.S. men in 1997 out of all 1.154 million divorces.
  
  If those numbers were representative of each year's statistics that would mean about 50k foreign marriages and 5k foreign marriage divorces each year.  That's only a 10% divorce rate.
  
  Item 3 goes on to state (although without solid substancation in the summary article) that 80% of these foreign marriages have continued.

Even I can't believe the numbers would be that low - however, my gut tells me that these foreign bride/U.S. men marriages are much more successful than our U.S. to U.S. counterparts.  My science is much less sophisticated.  I just ask, "How many marriages do you know that are so good you wish you could have the same kind of relationship?"  I can only think of one US/US marriage, but I can think of many more that are foreign/US I admire.  Without boasting, everyone I know wishes they had the kind of relationship I share with my wife.

Mark

[Misha]

Item 3 states that there were 4,000 to 6,000 divorces involving foreign brides of U.S. men in 1997 out of all 1.154 million divorces.

If those numbers were representative of each year's statistics that would mean about 50k foreign marriages and 5k foreign marriage divorces each year.  That's only a 10% divorce rate.

Remember, "divorce rates" are usually based on the chances of a person divorcing before they die or a 50-year marriage (whichever comes first).

[Admin]

And the results of our survey, based on more than 1,700 validated responses is:

40.76 %

While a 41 % divorce rate is still quite significant - it is ALSO significant that the rate is nearly 10 full percentage points LESS THAN the domestic divorce rate.

- Dan

Please take a look at our NEXT survey question poll -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=8602.0.

[Admin]

One of our members over at Planet-Love asked a question about whether or not the OWW (or equivalent) would have a higher divorce rate. That question gave rise to my preparing the following table:

Courtship Length	Divorce Rate
0 - 2 Weeks	45.00 %
2 - 4 Weeks	58.70 %
1 - 2 Months	48.39 %
2 - 4 Months	48.18 %
4 - 6 Months	39.43 %
6 - 9 Months	41.26 %
9 - 12 Months	38.89 %
1 - 2 Years	39.34 %
Other	35.84 %

From the results in the table, it looks like those marriages with a courtship less than 4 months, suffered a substantially higher rate of divorce than those with more than 4 months of courtship.

BTW - n = 1,710

What do y'all think?

- Dan

[GoodOlBoy]

Congratulations on your hard work Dan.

But I have to be honest with you. There are so many variables at play here that I think your results are kind of sketchy, at best.
 
There are so many divorced Russian's living in my area (Miami), that it kind of scares me sometimes. But I try not to think about it. I think your estimate is low. But you know what, hats off to you and your staff for tackling a difficult task.
 
Rick

[Admin]

Congratulations on your hard work Dan.

But I have to be honest with you. There are so many variables at play here that I think your results are kind of sketchy, at best.
 
There are so many divorced Russian's living in my area (Miami), that it kind of scares me sometimes. But I try not to think about it. I think your estimate is low. But you know what, hats off to you and your staff for tackling a difficult task.

>>There are so many variables at play here ...<<

Let me know what you think the variables are, and I will see if we have either addressed those - or can address those - in the data we collected.

- Dan

[BC]

Would be interesting to see the average length of the marriages within the ranges of courtship length.

[SANDRO43]

And the results of our survey, based on more than 1,700 validated responses

How does this split by gender ?

[GoodOlBoy]

Hi Dan. If I am not being to nosey could you explain what type of
Determinate baseline data and Indeterminate baseline data you used?

Also, did you take into account any Systemic Bias (external influences) that might affect your model?

Rick

[kievstar]

I would have thought it to be much lower than 41% since most men marrying foreign women do it when older and many probably on second marriage.  So it appears foreign marriages have high rate of divorce for older men. 

[Admin]

Hi Dan. If I am not being to nosey could you explain what type of
Determinate baseline data and Indeterminate baseline data you used?

Also, did you take into account any Systemic Bias (external influences) that might affect your model?

Rick

Rick,

This particular survey began with neither a Determinate nor an Indeterminate baseline which, as I understand it, are needed when specific goals and objectives are anticipated from the survey.

For example, while we set an objective to collect, and present, data and stats to address cross-cultural divorce rate, we did not set out with any specific numeric objective for divorce rate in mind. We knew that others have collected stats for domestic divorce, and the consultant we have hired is working to gather the relevant data to be applied in context with the results of our survey.

In terms of Systemic Bias, it is possible that the fact we used an online survey may bias in favor of those with internet access - which, arguably, could distort results somewhat, however, we also made provision for the survey to be printed and faxed, if a respondent had at least some limited access to the internet to download the document. Notably, we *did* receive a number of faxed surveys. We also made a VERY wide distribution of the online survey availability through email campaigns, press releases, newsletters, and internet promotion. Again, the emphasis on internet probably had some impact on the demographic of respondents, but with such a large sample size (more than 2,000), the results are statistically-significant for all results currently examined. We *may* find that we try to explore a specific question that probes so deeply into a parsed dataset that we lose significance, but that has not been the case to date.

- Dan

[Admin]

I would have thought it to be much lower than 41% since most men marrying foreign women do it when older and many probably on second marriage.  So it appears foreign marriages have high rate of divorce for older men. 

I am not sure that hypothesis would turn out to be accurate - although we *have* that data as well - reference:

A007: What was your age when you married?

It is certainly possible to address the 'sensitivity' of age of the man when married, on subsequent divorce rate.

- Dan

[Mark Davis]

Dan:

I think the most interesting thing would be to compare actual statistics with perceptions. 

The survey is opinion.  It's like asking, what percentage of red cars do you think are on the road?  It you owned a red car you'd say it was a higher number than someone who doesn't.  It's subjective, but that's the nature of an opinion survey.

The cool thing would be to get real numbers and compare those to our collective opinions.  That would tell us something about our attitudes.

It's kind of like those economy surveys.  When people are asked if they think the economy is bad or good or in the middle they most often answer leaning toward the bad side - because that's what they hear in the news.  But when they are asked (in the same survey) how they are doing personally the answers always lean to the positive.  How can the majority of people think that the economy is bad and everyone is hurting when the majority answer that they are doing fine and expect their lives to improve in the future?

I just wonder if some of the same would be true here.  Just curious, but I guess we'll never know.

Mark

[Admin]

Dan:

I think the most interesting thing would be to compare actual statistics with perceptions. 

The survey is opinion.  It's like asking, what percentage of red cars do you think are on the road?  It you owned a red car you'd say it was a higher number than someone who doesn't.  It's subjective, but that's the nature of an opinion survey.

The cool thing would be to get real numbers and compare those to our collective opinions.  That would tell us something about our attitudes.

It's kind of like those economy surveys.  When people are asked if they think the economy is bad or good or in the middle they most often answer leaning toward the bad side - because that's what they hear in the news.  But when they are asked (in the same survey) how they are doing personally the answers always lean to the positive.  How can the majority of people think that the economy is bad and everyone is hurting when the majority answer that they are doing fine and expect their lives to improve in the future?

I just wonder if some of the same would be true here.  Just curious, but I guess we'll never know.

Mark

Mark,

That is exactly what I am trying to do.

You see - these polls represent the perception, or opinion, of our members.

The survey is the result of hard data collection and analysis that is being assembled based on our Cross-Cultural Survey we initiated several months ago, and are just now to the stage where we can begin presenting results.

In this case, our member's collective perception/expectation was that the rate of divorce in cross-cultural marriages is about 40 to 50 %. This perception turned out to be pretty close to the REAL value, based on hard stats, of 41 %.

Now, contrast this to the perceptions of the members over at our sister site, Planet-Love -- http://www.planet-love.com/forum/index.php?topic=3856.0.

There, more respondents expected a divorce rate less than 41 %.

Make sense?

- Dan

[Mark Davis]

Got it.
Thanks!
Mark

[OhioGuyRob]

One of our members over at Planet-Love asked a question about whether or not the OWW (or equivalent) would have a higher divorce rate. That question gave rise to my preparing the following table:

<table height="203" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" border="1" align="" width="230" summary="">    <tbody>        <tr>            <td><strong>Courtship Length<br />
            </strong></td>            <td><strong>Divorce Rate</strong></td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>0 - 2 Weeks</td>            <td>45.00 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>2 - 4 Weeks</td>            <td>58.70 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>1 - 2 Months</td>            <td>48.39 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>2 - 4 Months</td>            <td>48.18 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>4 - 6 Months</td>            <td>39.43 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>6 - 9 Months</td>            <td>41.26 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>9 - 12 Months</td>            <td>38.89 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>1 - 2 Years</td>            <td>39.34 %</td>        </tr>        <tr>            <td>Other</td>            <td>35.84 %</td>        </tr>    </tbody></table>

From the results in the table, it looks like those marriages with a courtship less than 4 months, suffered a substantially higher rate of divorce than those with more than 4 months of courtship.

BTW - n = 1,710

What do y'all think?

- Dan

The other thing that's hard to factor into are the number of those marriages that end in divorce that were "fake" marriages.  Where either both are getting married knowing its not a legit marriage or where the girl is merely using the guy to get out of a bad situation  and the guy is the ticket out.


Read these forums and there is a large segment of guys on here that for lack of a better word, are just flat stupid when it comes to this whole process....




The reason IMHO that the numbers drop where the courtship is 9+months is that its almost impossible for a girl to fake romantic interest in a guy for that long especially if the courtship involves multiple trips to visit

[ML]

The other thing that's hard to factor into are the number of those marriages that end in divorce that were "fake" marriages.  Where either both are getting married knowing its not a legit marriage or where the girl is merely using the guy to get out of a bad situation  and the guy is the ticket out.

I have never heard of such a thing.

[jone]

Yeah, that's why I refuse to marry her.  She may be a fake.  I'll wait five years and then maybe get her a green card.  That way if she is faking she will be committed to nine years under my control.   

[ML]

I hear that water-boarding can discover the fakes.

[yaricksl]

Thanks for hosting the survey Andhe Neat results, although I never knew that the LCC was on Google Maps...Ill have to look that up   
cant wait for more stats

Sir Valiant

[BillyB]

Thanks for hosting the survey Andhe Neat results, although I never knew that the LCC was on Google Maps...Ill have to look that up   
cant wait for more stats

Sir Valiant

Still cutting and pasting posts from other forums here? If I did something wrong, management would be on me like fly on sh!t. I'm surprised you haven't been banned yet.


http://www.classic-castle.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=25004